As the Arctic warms at four times the global average, its ice is opening trade routes, exposing a trillion dollars of minerals, and drawing in every major power. This report examines what that means…
It encircles the Arctic Ocean and parts of eight territorial nations, including Canada, Russia, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Greenland (Denmark) and Alaska (USA). The main characteristics of the region include extreme climate patterns, unique ecosystems, and growing importance in the global political and environmental sphere.
The dominant feature of the Arctic region consists of the Arctic Ocean, which remains ice-capped throughout the year, while its surrounding land features include tundra along with permafrost and sparse vegetation. Winter months remain extremely cold and very dark as temperatures drop to around -50°C, and summer days become extended by the midnight sun that lasts for extensive stretches. The severe climatic elements in this part of the world still allow multiple species, including polar bears, Arctic foxes, walruses, different bird populations and whales and seals, along with limited plant diversity comprising mostly robust mosses and lichens and short plants to survive. Indigenous peoples such as the Inuit, Sámi, and Yupik have adapted to these extremes and survived for thousands of years by developing their communities' resilience while depending on fishing and hunting as well as modern mining and tourism operations.
Global shipping routes have started to view the Arctic as an important strategic point because melting sea ice has opened new paths through the region, making it more navigable. The Northern Sea Route (NSR), running along Russia's Arctic coast, and the Northwest Passage through Canada are now becoming viable substitutes to traditional routes like the Suez Canal. These passages can reduce transit times between Europe and Asia by 30–50%, offering significant economic and strategic benefits. Countries like India depend on maritime trade to a significant extent, thus, Arctic shipping routes will influence trade patterns, especially as political uncertainties and instabilities affect the Middle East and other key chokepoints.
The Arctic is a litmus test for global climate change. The Arctic experiences a yearly sea ice reduction of 12.2 per cent against the 1981–2010 baseline, and its permafrost accelerates its thawing rate, thus adding additional greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The climate changes in these areas threaten both native plant and animal diversity, together with indigenous cultural existence, while affecting worldwide climate behaviour. For India, the melting of Arctic ice and the retreat of glaciers elevates sea levels — a direct risk to a 7,500 kilometre coastline and potentially impacting the country's crucial Indian monsoon system, which supports food security and agricultural productivity.
The Arctic is governed by several authorities, ranging from nation-states that lie in the region to international organisations. Global treaties and agreements also play a key role in the region's governance.
The Arctic Council is one of the key intergovernmental organisations that works in the region. It was established in 1996 as a leading intergovernmental forum dedicated to Arctic cross-border governance due to rising regional prominence. Its eight Member states, along with indigenous organisations and observer countries, which include India since 2013, collaborate to advance sustainable development, environmental protection and scientific research initiatives. The Council's working groups address issues ranging from climate monitoring alongside biodiversity conservation, emergency response and pollution control. Through its role as an observer, India can take part in science-based collaborative projects and policy-driven discussions that show how Arctic problems and prospects impact nations worldwide.
Apart from the Arctic Council, the Arctic Economic Council is an independent forum that facilitates business activities in the region. Regional organisations like the Barents Euro Arctic Council and the Nordic Council also play a key role in the region.
Further, the United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS), along with the domestic policies of the 8 Arctic Nations — the USA, Russia, Canada, Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland — remains highly influential in the governance of the region.
The Arctic stands at the junction of climate science, global trade and networks, and international diplomacy. The rapid modifications in Arctic terrain function simultaneously as climate change indicators and prospective paths for international sustainable resource management. The strategic engagement with the Arctic region has become mandatory for India — it is a strategic imperative that touches on energy security and trade while securing environmental stability and global leadership. As the ice recedes and new frontiers open, the Arctic's next chapter will be written through the choices and collaborations made by today's global community.
The Arctic region is becoming a major focal point in world geopolitics with its critical location, which has significant strategic, environmental and economic implications for India. It is necessary for India to engage in a region with the global powers vying for their interests to safeguard its own interests. This region is also vital for India in its scientific missions to analyse global weather patterns, which is crucial in understanding and learning about the threat and impact of the Arctic region on Indian weather patterns.
Arctic polar caps are melting at a staggering three times more than the average rate of the world, shrinking at a decadal change of 12.2% compared to the average rate between 1981 and 2010 which could lead to a rise in sea level, according to NASA; posing a grave challenge for India with a coastline of 7,516.6 km. With a whopping 13% of the total undiscovered oil reserves and 30% of the total undiscovered natural gas reserves of the world, the Arctic region is becoming a major source for future energy requirements, creating a newfound interest in the region from the global powers such as the USA, China and Russia.
Also, deposits of 1 trillion dollars of rare earth mineral reserves, which could meet the necessities of almost a quarter of the whole future demands, make this region a foremost agenda for India. Also, if the Northern Sea Route (NSR) becomes completely accessible, there will be a 30%–50% decrease in transit time for shipments compared to that of traditional routes like the Suez Canal, a boon for India in the wake of rising political turmoil in West Asia.
India's Arctic engagement started way back from the colonial era under the British Raj. In 1920, British India became a signatory to the Svalbard Treaty, which recognises Norwegian sovereignty over Svalbard and grants equal rights to signatories for commercial and scientific activities. Post-Independence, India's involvement in the region was minimal till 2007, when India launched its first scientific expedition to the Arctic in August. In 2008, India's first research station, Himadri Research Station, started operating in Ny-Alesund in Svalbard to focus on space weather, glaciers and carbon cycling. Then, in 2013, India became one of the thirteen observer states in the Arctic Council and started to take part in its working group. India achieved two major milestones in their Arctic expedition by deploying its first multi-censored observatory, called IndArc, in Kongsfjorden in 2014 and the northernmost atmospheric laboratory in Gruvebadet in 2016. Then, in 2022, India declared its first Arctic policy, showcasing its willingness to be involved in the Arctic region.
Before 2022, India’s engagements with the Arctic region were limited to scientific expeditions. The National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research (NCPOR) leads most of the research expeditions for India in the Arctic region, and they were responsible for the establishment of the Himadri Research Station in Svalbard in 2008. Till 2022, India had been working in the Arctic region without a clear-cut policy framework, and this contributed to the minimal responsibilities it got from the Arctic Council as an observer state, often receiving responsibilities in the Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF) and Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP).
On 17th March 2022, the Government of India unveiled its first Arctic Policy, consisting of six pillars: science and research, environmental protection, economic and human development, connectivity, government and international cooperation, and national capacity building. The policy on various fronts diversified India's role and responsibilities in the region beyond that of a scientific explorer. India is now trying to publish more than 150 research papers by 2030, and study the Arctic-Himalayan relation and its impact on climate change. India’s new policy unveiling was seen by many as an act to counter the rise of Chinese meddling in the region.
India started to focus and expand its presence in the Arctic from 2022, when it announced its first official Arctic policy. India's main scientific research station in Svalbard, Norway, studies aerosol radiation, microbial communities, food-web dynamics, glaciers, sedimentology, space weather and carbon recycling, which are the main goals of India's research in the region. India conducted its first winter expedition in 2023. With the IndArc observatory and Gruvebadet laboratory providing real-time data and updates about the Arctic climate and the weather patterns, which are crucial for analysing the retreat of the Himalayan glaciers and the patterns of Indian monsoons, India also plays a huge role in research related to the Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna Working Group and the Arctic Migratory Birds Initiative (AMBI). India also decided to have its first Polar Research Vessel (PRV) and the largest Indian-made research vessel to tap into the untouched resources in the Arctic. India is trying to emphasise a sustainable engagement to combat the Arctic's influence on global warming by following frameworks for governance like the Polar Code for shipping by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
India, being one of the leading giants in space technology, is looking forward to expanding its proficiency in the Arctic. With satellite systems like RISAT, the Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) and NASA-ISRO SAR (NISAR), India can work towards better mapping, exploration and scientific study of the region. Satellite-based digital connectivity and communication are also areas India looks forward to working on in its policy.
India, being one of the leaders of climate efforts, is liable to protect and safeguard the climate and biodiversity of the Arctic. Climate and environment also stand out as one of the major dimensions of India's scientific study. The region of the Arctic is undergoing warming at the highest phase, bringing multifaceted changes to the region, which need to be observed, as the Arctic impacts various global phenomena of the world, including the Indian Monsoon. Further, as the world's third pole, the Himalayas and the Arctic face similar climate issues like warming and ice-glacier melt, so collaborative conservation efforts can be made.
UN Sustainable Development Goals play a major role in India's economic involvement in the region, underlining the importance of responsible resource utilisation and exploration. The Arctic Economic Council has a huge role in the business activities in the region; however, India is yet to be associated with the group. India has already initiated collaborations in resource exploration, infrastructure development and green energy production. Also, the Chennai-Vladivostok Eastern Maritime Corridor is a major initiative for India since it could lessen the transit time to Europe by more than 20 to 40 days. Huge resources of rare-earth minerals and untapped natural gas and oil resources are attracting investments and interest from India.
While the Arctic economy attracts India, as the nation's vision is driven by sustainable development, India looks forward to engaging in the region's economic activities in a way that is beneficial for the indigenous people. As the region's indigenous people and their livelihoods have been hit hard by climate change, India is willing to offer its expertise in dealing with similar conditions in the Himalayan region with the Arctic nations, making and shaping the lives of the region's locals.
As the Arctic witnesses climate change and subsequent warming and melting of ice, several new sea routes through the region are opening, potentially reshaping global trade. Further, the traffic on the Northern Sea Route in the past several years has been on the rise. To make navigation and transportation better in the region, India — through its hydrographic and meteorological study, mapping capabilities and communication coverage — looks forward to revolutionising trade and movement in the region.
The second-last pillar of India's Arctic focus expresses India's willingness and way to contribute to the Arctic. The Arctic region is not governed by a single authority, but by various nation states, international organisations, global treaties and bilateral agreements. The Arctic Forum, of which India is an observer member, along with the Arctic Economic Forum, stands out as the platform that voices environmental and economic issues of the Arctic. India, through this already established political structure in the Arctic, looks forward to contributing to the security, prosperity, stability and international cooperation in the region. India has also ratified most global treaties on the Arctic and has bolstered engagement with Arctic nations in the last few years to actively contribute to the betterment of the region, all from climate to economy.
To fulfil its above vision of the Arctic, India is focusing on enhancing its technology, capabilities and augmented capacities. India wants to achieve this by bettering its scientific exploration techniques, raising awareness about the Arctic, getting experts to study the resource-rich Arctic, and training seafarers for Arctic-Polar navigations. All this development takes place in assistance with the Atma Nirbhar Bharat scheme.
While post-2022 India has broadened its Arctic outlook from just scientific exploration by adding climate change, human development, economic interests and governance to its agenda, changing geopolitical dynamics in the region along with growing militarisation and strategic competition and rivalries in the Arctic need to find a reflection in India's new outlook towards the Arctic. The approach would not only give a long-term strategic benefit to India in the region but would also pave the way for Bharat's rise as a 'Global Power'.
The Arctic region is experiencing a huge transformation, from being a frozen fringe to a new centre of economic opportunity, environmental vulnerability, and geopolitical contestation. The Arctic, once considered unimportant for many years in global strategic calculations, is now — with the fast-changing topography due to climate change, competition over the vast resources, new shipping lanes, and governance frameworks — continuing to attract the attention of states both within and outside the Arctic. Emerging intensely on the geopolitical stage with increasing economic strength, new environmental vulnerabilities, and aspirations for a greater say in global governance, India can no longer afford to remain an extension concerning engagement with or understanding of these shifting Arctic dynamics; it has to be strategically imperative.
The reason why Arctic geopolitics is at its crucial juncture pertains to the rich resource endowments available in it. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that about 13% of the world's undiscovered oil, 30% of its undiscovered natural gas, and large quantities of rare earth minerals, gold, uranium, as well as diamonds are located somewhere beneath the seabed of the Arctic. Such resources, under increasing global energy security scenarios and those of critical minerals, have raised the stakes, especially for developing countries going through an energy transition as well as through modernisation of technologies.
New seas are emerging as ice melts, and sea corridors such as the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, or the Transpolar Sea Route directly through the Arctic Ocean, have the potential to cut shipping times between Asia and Europe by up to 40% without using choke points like the Suez Canal and Strait of Malacca. Control over these arteries promises not only economic benefits but strategic leverage in global trade flows as well. Changing dynamics of the world order have developed a promising situation for strong and poor countries alike, whereby it indicates intense future implications for maritime strategy and trade security for India, considering that India is a maritime-dependent country whose trade routes are sensitive to chokepoints.
Rapid warming in the Arctic, almost quadruple the global average, will have numerous complex and cascading effects on global environments. The loss of sea ice in the Arctic and thawing of the frozen ground or permafrost is changing the very fabric of weather, destabilising polar atmospheric circulation not only in the Arctic but also across far and wide regions. The main area of concern for India is the impact of the Arctic on the Indian monsoon; a major factor affecting possible agricultural outputs, availability of water, and hence food security of the country.
Besides, the melting of the Greenland ice sheet adds a significant volume to global sea levels and is thereby dangerous to the safety of densely populated coastal cities, such as Mumbai, Chennai, and Kolkata, critical to India's economy. It directly means that environmental change in the Arctic also has implications for climate resilience, economic stability and human security for India.
While the Arctic emerges as a new power fortress of the world, the Arctic Council — the chief body that promotes cooperation and environmental protection in the region — suspended its activities in March 2022 due to deteriorating relations between the members of the council. Post the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the other 7 members of the Arctic Council — Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Iceland, USA and Canada — being part of NATO, stood against Russia's chairmanship of the council.
Though the Council restarted partially in June 2022 in non-Russian areas and even got Norway as the new chair in 2023, the strained relationships between the USA and its allies and Russia raise questions on the council's ability and power to govern, rule and function for the betterment of the region. The relationship dynamics also further affect regional stability and sincere efforts for regional conservation.
America has revamped its engagement, much sharper in the Arctic region, defining the area as a zone of critical strategic competition. Policies on national security, access to resources, and opposition to rival powers are contained in the articulation of both the Trump and Biden administrations in Washington.
This was brought into sharper relief by the proposal to purchase Greenland in 2019, diplomatically knocked aside but underlining the American strategic-gathering intent toward the Arctic. Since then, the U.S. has incorporated further military and diplomatic posture by reopening its consulate in Nuuk, modernising Polar Security Cutters, expanding joint military exercises with NATO allies in the High North, and upgrading capabilities at Thule Air Base in Greenland. The 2020 U.S. Department of Defence Arctic Strategy framed the region as vital for homeland defence, freedom of navigation, and deterrence of Russian and Chinese encroachments.
Besides these, American initiatives in science, infrastructure, and governance, including through the Arctic Council and bilateral partnerships with Nordic states, work to project U.S. leadership while safeguarding its economic and security interests. The American approach combines hard power deterrence with soft power diplomacy, providing overlapping avenues for influence.
To Russia, the Arctic is not merely a frontier of opportunity but rather a cornerstone of national identity, security, and economic survival. It boasts the longest Arctic coastline of more than 24,000 km, extensive Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), and holds the majority of the region's hydrocarbon reserves. The Kremlin thus views the Arctic as an economic engine and a strategic bastion against Western encroachment.
On the economic front, flagship projects like Yamal LNG (active) and Arctic LNG 2 (under construction) are establishing Russia as a premier Arctic energy exporter, with ever-growing interests from China and other Asian markets, in its efforts to diversify energy markets and reduce European dependence — especially following Western sanctions post-2014 (Crimea) and post-2022 (Ukraine invasion). Moscow aims to promote the Northern Sea Route as its commercial lifeline, reckoned through monetisation from Russian Arctic ports to Asian markets, where Russia will maintain control through burden-sharing agreements, infrastructure development, and military presence.
The largest Arctic militarisation campaign has been conducted by Russia. The bases spread over Franz Josef Land and Novaya Zemlya were restored from the Soviet past; S-400 missile systems were deployed; the Northern Fleet was resurrected and modernised into an autonomous military district; and nuclear icebreakers were brought in to ensure freedom in Arctic operations. These measures implement Russia's Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy to safeguard its energy corridors and signify its presence and assertiveness.
For India, which has been maintaining robust defence and energy channels with Moscow, it becomes difficult to negotiate these dynamics, especially as G7-led sanctions pressure Russian Arctic undertakings, such as Arctic LNG 2, with respect to which India halted its participation in 2024.
While not being an Arctic state, China has rapidly thrust itself into Arctic affairs, declaring itself a "near-Arctic state" in a controversial stance of the 2018 Arctic Policy White Paper. Through the Polar Silk Road initiative of Beijing, Arctic shipping lanes and resources are subsumed into a larger Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
China's growing involvement in the Arctic is multi-dimensional, geared toward energy, infrastructure, science and diplomacy. It invests in Russia's Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG 2 projects, thus securing long-term energy supplies for its domestic needs. It is also investing heavily in infrastructure, which includes the exploration of possible Arctic ports, laying subsea cables, and developing an icebreaker fleet powered by nuclear energy to facilitate polar navigation.
On the research front, China operates the Yellow River Research Station in Svalbard, regularly leads Arctic expeditions and has acquired considerable seabed mapping data with a dual purpose for science and national security. China is an observer of the Arctic Council and is enhancing bilateral relations with the Arctic states, as manifested in its free trade agreement with Iceland and the recent normalisation of relations with Norway, thereby positioning itself as a significant stakeholder in the search for evolving governance in that area.
For India, this raises strategic concerns regarding monopoly of resources, asymmetrical norm-setting, and maritime leverage in subsequent Arctic arrangements.
Arctic geopolitics are increasingly affected by entrenched national strategies that have developed into four major fault lines, each projecting the landscape of the emerging multipolar competition. Firstly, the USA-Russia rivalry has always existed, with the old-fashioned military dominance contest on its hands for the Arctic sea lanes, energy corridors, and regional influence. The saga has been confounded by NATO expansion to the High North, particularly the admission of Sweden and Finland, which changes the security balance and raises strategic rhetoric in the region.
The second fault line derives from China's aggressive approach toward Arctic expansion. Beijing's infrastructural investments and normative ambitions are steadily increasing pressure on the established dominance of all Arctic littoral states. By redefining governance patterns through its economic initiatives and scientific programs, China risks erecting exclusionary arrangements that could marginalise middle powers such as India, thus reducing their ability to engage meaningfully in Arctic affairs.
A third point of friction emanates from Western sanctions imposed on Russia, which have splintered Arctic Council cooperation and have cut off Russian Arctic projects. Not only has this weakened multilateral engagement platforms in the region, but it has also made things rather tricky for India in terms of energy diplomacy concerning Moscow, since India has historically relied on Russia for long-term energy security partnerships.
Finally, the governance contests are slowly intensifying, with visions clashing on key areas of environmental protection, indigenous rights, resource extraction, and free navigation. Aspects of this argument frame rules and regulations within and outside the reaches of the Arctic Council, a factor that adds another layer of complexity to the challenges of cooperation in Arctic governance and brews new contention around it.
The Arctic, long cloaked in ice and mystery, is fast emerging as the next frontier of global competition — rich in resources, laden with new trade opportunities, and central to the geopolitics of climate change. For India, a non-Arctic country, the region is more than a scientific curiosity: it is a strategic gold mine of the future, with untapped hydrocarbons, rare minerals, and new shipping lanes that could redefine energy security, trade dynamics, and global influence.
As the Arctic warms at nearly four times the global average, India is pivoting from a science-driven presence to a more assertive economic and strategic approach. With its 2022 Arctic Policy in hand, India now aims to position itself as a key player in the unfolding Arctic century, balancing environmental responsibility, geopolitical neutrality, and ambitious economic outreach.
The Arctic holds 13% of the world's undiscovered oil, 30% of its natural gas, and vast troves of rare earth elements (REEs), gold, zinc, and diamonds. Greenland alone hosts one-fourth of the planet's rare earth reserves — critical for India's National Critical Mineral Mission, defence systems, semiconductors, electric vehicles, and renewable tech.
India, the world's third-largest energy consumer, currently imports over 80% of its oil and half of its natural gas. Arctic hydrocarbons could shift this equation, helping India increase the share of natural gas in its energy mix from 6% to 15% by 2030.
Indian public sector giants like ONGC Videsh and Indian Oil have already invested over $5 billion in Russian Arctic projects, including the Vostok Oil project. LNG deals with Russia's Novatek for Yamal and Arctic LNG-2 reinforce India's foothold in polar energy. Imports of Arctic crude (e.g., ARCO, Novy Port) are growing, while joint renewable energy hubs, like Russia's Snezhinka Arctic station, align with India's climate commitments.
Beyond energy, Arctic minerals — niobium, platinum group elements, and REEs — are indispensable to India's manufacturing goals under Make in India. Collaborations on Arctic port development, eco-tourism, and infrastructure could also open new avenues for Indian industry, technology, and labour.
Climate change conditions have created an opportunity for India through the melting Northern Sea Route (NSR). As a major trade link, the Chennai-Vladivostok Maritime Corridor offers a strategic distance reduction from 21,000 km through the Suez Canal down to 12,800 km. In 2024, India handled 35% of NSR cargo at Russia's Murmansk port, demonstrating readiness at an operational level.
A 2021 India-Russia agreement between Mazagon Dock and Zvezda Shipyard for Arctic-class commercial ships reflects an intent to build polar maritime capability. The $3 billion Maritime Development Fund (2025–26 Budget) supports shipbuilding tailored to Arctic conditions and boosts private-sector participation.
While the Arctic region transforms into a significant economic and geopolitical hotspot, India faces multiple substantial barriers on its path toward new opportunities. The obstacles range from environmental vulnerabilities to infrastructural limitations and governance complexities, each demanding strategic foresight and innovation.
Warming four times faster than the world average, the Arctic area now faces destruction of its natural ecosystems while creating larger global climate instability. For India, the cascading effects are profound.
The melting process of permafrost alongside ice reduction affects polar jet streams, resulting in modified rainfall patterns that endanger India's agricultural economy, which provides food for 50% of its population.
The 3.3mm annual sea-level rise driven by Greenland ice melt exposes three Indian economic power centres — Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata.
The elevated Arctic shipping sector and mining activities introduce toxic substances, including mercury and oil spills, that create instability in ocean habitats and poison fish stocks as part of global food networks.
India operates without its own ice-class vessels as it depends on foreign shipping companies for both research operations and commercial activities. The Russian fleet includes more than 40 icebreakers that contain nuclear-powered models, compared to the declining equipment base of the United States.
Constructing infrastructure on permafrost land requires unique engineering practices that lead to a minimum 30% but potentially exceeding 50% expense rise above typical temperate construction costs.
Transporting LNG from Russia's Yamal project requires navigating the ice-bound Northern Sea Route, which imposes substantial insurance costs due to short yearly operating windows.
The absence of polar logistics capabilities within India's territory makes the nation vulnerable to relying on Arctic states for critical infrastructure needs.
The mutual tensions between the United States and Russia, through Western sanctions, affect Indian energy partnerships by requiring Indian companies to utilise rupee-ruble trade mechanisms for Russia's Arctic gas projects.
China has invested $90 billion to develop its Polar Silk Road through port construction, subsea cable infrastructure, and dual-use research facilities, which risks reducing the Indian presence in the Arctic region. China uses its claimed near-Arctic state authority to compete with India for natural resource access, along with Belt and Road Initiative-linked infrastructure initiatives.
The addition of Finland and Sweden to NATO creates a northern expansion of allied presence that may push India and other unaligned countries to the margins regarding Arctic regional management.
As an observer, India lacks voting rights in the Arctic Council, which prevents it from shaping major decisions regarding shipping, fishing and mining.
The extended continental shelf claims pursued by Russia threaten the stability of the UNCLOS framework, which poses difficulties for India to operate in international maritime spaces.
Over 40 Indigenous groups hold significant sway in Arctic governance. India needs to negotiate projects that respect indigenous rights for cultural preservation alongside their land-use authority through careful diplomatic methods.
The research facilities that India operates in polar regions fall short of the capabilities found at Yellow River Station in China and Svalbard Station in Norway. India's Himadri station studies monsoon linkages, but does not function throughout every season.
The development of the Chennai-Vladivostok trade route demands ice-class ships and port advancements totalling more than $3 billion, which presents substantial economic challenges to an emerging economy.
Indian companies shy away from Arctic ventures because they view the combination of natural climate conditions and political risks as presenting return-on-investment obstacles between 20 and 30 per cent, which the state needs to guarantee.
Extracting Arctic hydrocarbons creates an opposing dilemma for India since it contradicts its COP26 promise to cut its emissions intensity by 45% during the next decade.
Green technology reliance presents challenges in the transition to Arctic wind and solar energy since Nordic states need partnership, yet intellectual property barriers and high costs remain obstacles.
India's Arctic ambitions hinge on overcoming these interconnected challenges through innovation, diplomacy, and strategic investments. Prioritising icebreaker development, green technology alliances, and Indigenous collaborations could position India as a responsible stakeholder. However, without addressing geopolitical fissures and governance gaps, India risks being outpaced in the race for the "Gold Mine of the Future."
The Arctic's rapid transformation from a frozen frontier to a geopolitical and economic hotspot demands that India adopt a proactive, multidimensional strategy that balances environmental stewardship, resource security, and strategic influence. Building on its 2022 Arctic Policy, India needs to utilise the Arctic Policy while managing competing global powers and environmental risks and infrastructure challenges to protect its strategic interests in this fast-changing Arctic region.
India's diplomatic engagement with the Arctic exists through its current status as an Arctic Council Observer since 2013, together with the India-Nordic Summit meetings that began in 2020 and continued in 2022. These platforms allow participation in climate research discussions and sustainability dialogues, yet they do not grant decision-making power. India should use Norway's chairmanship of the Arctic Council (2023–2025) to create observer-state voting privileges regarding climate and trade decisions, and establish dedicated Arctic desks within the Ministry of External Affairs and key embassies (Oslo, Moscow, Ottawa) to facilitate coordinated activity involving scientific, economic and diplomatic endeavours.
Strengthening research and technological sovereignty is critical. India's delayed Polar Research Vessel requires immediate attention since budgetary limitations have delayed its production and stand as the main barrier for conducting Arctic operations throughout the entire year. Collaboration between India, Norway and Canada for an Arctic Earth station installation to collect essential ice-melt data and shipping insights will boost predictions of monsoons and Northern Sea Route shipping. A National Polar Academy under the National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research should teach glaciology, Arctic law and ice-class ship navigation to fill India's polar logistics skill deficits.
Economically, India must capitalise on emerging trade corridors and resource partnerships. The Chennai-Vladivostok Maritime Corridor needs icebreaker assistance along with strategic port development at Murmansk to benefit from its potential 40% reduction of Europe-Asia transport times. The implementation of tax incentives for Indian NSR cargo handlers will transform India into a strong force within Arctic maritime transport operations. The National Critical Minerals Mission needs to establish joint ventures with Canada for nickel procurement and Greenland for rare earths acquisition to decrease dependency on China, which holds a 60% market lead in rare earth processing. The Arctic startup industry can receive a boost through a ₹3,000 crore infusion from the Maritime Development Fund to pursue robotics development, cold-chain operations, and eco-tourism ventures, which support India's sustainable development needs.
India requires immediate action to counter China's expanding Polar Silk Road initiative. A $5 billion Arctic Infrastructure Fund designed through Japanese and Korean collaboration would provide affordable loan options for Russian and Nordic development initiatives to reduce Chinese participation. Indian solar-powered microgrid solutions represent an opportunity to compete against the infrastructure projects linked to China's Belt and Road Initiative through exports to Greenland and Svalbard.
Sustainable resource development must underpin India’s Arctic ambitions. Through the Svalbard Treaty, India receives permitting authority to conduct mining activities in Norwegian territories, but extraction must adhere to EU-style green mining standards to mitigate ecological damage. Primarily through an India-Russia Arctic Energy Consortium established between ONGC Videsh and Rosneft, the partners can attain equity ownership in Vostok Oil and Arctic LNG 3, through rupee-ruble financial agreements that circumvent Western economic restrictions. Iceland's geothermal hydrogen production using its 98% renewable energy grid can serve two purposes: it fulfils India's climate requirements and provides power to polar stations.
Addressing environmental fragility is non-negotiable. Research activities at Himadri Station must grow to determine permafrost thaw effects on Himalayan glaciers because this knowledge will help develop water security policies. The implementation of the International Maritime Organisation's Polar Code for shipping as well as UNCLOS for resource extraction will ensure India's activities align with global sustainability frameworks.
Institutional fragmentation remains a hurdle. Organising an Arctic Research and Development Agency (ARDA) that combines representatives from ministries, along with academic teams and private industry groups, would help align policy achievement. A dual initiative to support scholarships together with academic exchanges between Indian students and the University of Tromsø would establish specialised expertise in polar engineering as well as climate law.
Being a non-Arctic nation, India's increased presence in the Arctic could be questioned by many. However, India holds various points to justify its presence in the region.
The monsoon system is affected by several oceanic and atmospheric phenomena, including those that happen in the Arctic region. Hence, studying and analysing the impacts of climate change and ice melting in the Arctic becomes key for India in understanding changes in the monsoon system. The point is directly related to the nation's food security and economic wellness, as the monsoon system is crucial for the agricultural industry in India. With Arctic ice melting and global sea levels rising, several Indian islands and coastal areas also face the danger of submerging, giving India another precious reason to be in the Arctic.
Further, the strategic and scientific connection between the Arctic and the Himalayas can also be used to justify India's steps in the Arctic. India's Arctic Policy is driven by its efforts on climate change, and as both the Himalayas and the Arctic face a similar climate crisis from global warming, collaborative conservation efforts can be made. The Hindu Kush Himalayan Monitoring and Assessment Programme (HIMAP) is one such programme inspired by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP).
A study of the melting of ice in the Arctic can further give valuable insights for the preservation of the Himalayan glaciers, which power the perennial rivers of India that sustain the lives of several thousand people. A collaborative study on trapped pathogens in both the Arctic and the Himalayas can be of great benefit and help the world curtail a new pandemic.
Russia has the longest exclusive Arctic economic zone and the largest coastline along the Arctic Ocean. India has a historic and longstanding alliance with the Russians, which goes back to the Soviet era, leading to heavy reliance on arms, ammunition, naval vessels and fighter jets for the Indian Armed Forces. India benefited hugely from the region because of its close ties with the Russians, especially less-priced LNG imports, reducing the cost incurred for oil imports. India has already initiated its plans to connect the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) with the Unified Deep-Water System of European Russia (UDWS), an inland water linkage route between the Baltic Sea, the White Sea, the Black Sea, the Volga River, the Azov Sea and the Caspian Sea. Hence, Russia can be one of the main strategic partners for India in the Arctic.
Norway, Denmark (via Greenland), Sweden, Finland, and Iceland are known as the Nordic countries. Of these, only Norway, Denmark (Greenland), and Iceland have territory within the Arctic Circle and direct Arctic claims; Sweden and Finland are considered Arctic states but have smaller Arctic territories. India and the Nordic countries, sharing the same democratic values, have close ties. The 2nd India-Nordic Summit (2022) highlighted cooperation on scientific research, green energy and sustainable development. India has historic diplomatic ties with every Nordic country, and with Norway chairing the Arctic Council, India has already expanded its influence in the region. Finland and Denmark also maintain very close relationships with India, collaborating on waste management, renewable energy, and green energy technology. Further, after Norway, Denmark will take over the chairmanship of the Arctic Council from 2025-27, which can serve as the 'Golden Period' for India's Arctic approach.
In the last few years, India has emerged as one of the closest strategic partners of the USA. India can explore possibilities of reaching and benefiting from the Arctic region through the Alaska region of the USA. India and the USA together can further study and carry out scientific exploration in the Arctic. NASA-ISRO SAR (NISAR), developed by the space agencies of the USA and India, can be used to study the Arctic's relief, ice melting and more.
By leveraging the presence of the Indian diaspora and by improving relations with Canada in the upcoming years, India can look forward to exploring the Arctic through Canada.
Apart from these, India can further strengthen its presence in the Arctic by bolstering its position in the Arctic Council, along with making engagements with the Arctic Economic Council (AEC), which carries out business activities in the region. International platforms like BRICS, G20, and ASEAN can be used to champion Arctic climate adaptation policies and global ocean governance frameworks. Mobilising Indian private firms to invest in Arctic ports, shipbuilding, telecom infrastructure, and eco-tourism can also give India its much-needed presence in the region.
The Arctic's rapid transformation from a frozen frontier to a geopolitical and economic hotspot presents India with a dual challenge: it needs to defend its strategic goals in the region alongside maintaining responsible international climate policies. The receding ice produces market opportunities alongside new supply routes and scientific possibilities; it also brings increased environmental risks alongside rapid militarisation and international power rivalries in the region. India's 2022 Arctic Policy leads India into active participation from mere observation of Arctic developments, but requires many diplomatic skills, together with innovative methods and a strong institutional structure to progress.
The Arctic's strategic significance for India stems from its relationship with worldwide climate systems, together with resource market dynamics. The Indian agricultural sector, based on summer rains, and its extensive coastal region face risks from disappearing ice, along with the Northern Sea Route becoming an important strategic trade route. India's collaboration with Russia on the Chennai-Vladivostok Maritime Corridor and Arctic LNG projects underscores its energy ambitions, but Western sanctions and China's Polar Silk Road complicate these partnerships. India should make decisions that match its traditional relationships while adhering to the Paris Agreement targets and opposing Beijing's discriminatory infrastructure development plans.
India's Arctic strategy must navigate a complex geopolitical chessboard where U.S.-Russia tensions, China's expansionism, and Nordic climate leadership intersect. While maintaining its historical energy and defence ties with Russia — critical for securing discounted LNG and Northern Sea Route access — India cannot afford to alienate Western allies advocating for sanctions compliance or climate-conscious governance. Simultaneously, China's aggressive Polar Silk Road investments, which include dual-use infrastructure and resource monopolies, demand a counterstrategy: partnering with Japan and South Korea to finance alternative Arctic projects and leveraging Quad collaborations on green shipping corridors.
India's non-aligned tradition positions it uniquely to champion inclusive multilateralism, pushing back against exclusionary frameworks while advocating for BRICS-era equity in resource access and decision-making. By balancing pragmatic engagement with Moscow, constructive dialogue with NATO-aligned Nordic states, and resistance to Beijing's normative dominance, India can carve a third path — one that prioritises climate-resilient development while safeguarding strategic autonomy in the new Great Game.
Environmental stewardship must remain central to India’s Arctic strategy. The application of the Polar Code from the International Maritime Organisation, together with European Union-style green mining requirements, will defend the environment, and Inuit community partnerships for eco-tourism and cultural knowledge exchange will help develop long-term sustainable development. India's leadership in climate-resilient infrastructure, such as solar microgrids for Greenland, represents an opportunity for the nation to become a global leader in resilient climate infrastructure development.
By 2030, India should aim to source 15% of its critical minerals from Arctic partnerships, conduct 20% of worldwide polar research and establish permanent membership on the Arctic Council’s Sustainable Development Working Group. A "3C" approach consisting of coordination through the ARDA, collaboration among Arctic and non-Arctic states, and climate responsibility through green technology and governance, will help achieve these goals.
The Arctic is not merely a resource frontier but a litmus test for India's rise as a responsible global power. As the ice retreats, the future direction of India in the 21st-century world order will depend on its strategic decision-making between immediate economic advancement and environmental sustainability, since the melting ice exposes critical choices. By harmonising economic ambition with planetary stewardship, India can act as an interconnecting force between Arctic territories and developing global regions to achieve sustainable and equitable development.
Jal Trivedi, Research Analyst, TIES · Apoorva Roy, Research Analyst, TIES · Ayush Bhatt, Research Fellow, TIES · Maheswar, Research Fellow, TIES · Hardik Pathak, Co-Founder, TIES
Hardik Pathak, Co-Founder, TIES
Tiesverse — India's youth-led research, media and technology organisation.